[News analysis] Moon, Xi discuss ways to promote N. Korea-US dialogue

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (right side) and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a summit in Beijing on Dec. 23. (Kim Jung-hyo, staff photographer)

Seoul supports Beijing, Moscow’s draft resolution for relieving sanctions against Pyongyang

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (right side) and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a summit in Beijing on Dec. 23. (Kim Jung-hyo, staff photographer)

With the clock ticking on North Korea’s “end-of-the-year deadline,” and its threat to go down a “new path,” South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on Dec. 23 for an in-depth discussion of how to work together to prevent a crisis on the Korean Peninsula and to maintain the impetus for dialogue.

Particularly notable is South Korea’s first expression of support for the draft resolution that China and Russia recently submitted to the UN Security Council, calling for the relaxation of sanctions on North Korea. While noting that Moon and Xi had discussed the draft resolution, a senior official at the Blue House described the South Korean position as follows: “Various international efforts need to be made given the extreme gravity of the current security situation on the Korean Peninsula.” While the US expressed its opposition to the draft, describing it as “premature,” the South Korean government appears to have concluded that a partial relaxation of sanctions is necessary to contain the current danger and to preserve the momentum for dialogue.

“This can be interpreted as the president expressing his belief that the sanctions on North Korea should be partially adjusted in order to preserve momentum for dialogue, given his belief that, if we miss this opportunity, we’ll face a crisis that would be difficult to reverse,” said Lee Hui-ok, director of the Sungkyun Institute of China Studies. Lee suggested that some sanctions could be reversed using a “snapback” condition, in which the sanctions would be reinstated if North Korea fails to move forward with denuclearization.

The South Korean government apparently expressed this position to the US and sought its understanding during US Deputy Director of State Stephen Biegun’s recent visit to South Korea. “The South Korean government’s position has been that sanctions would need to be relaxed or adjusted at some point, if only to create an impetus for the North Korea-US negotiations. This position was adequately communicated during Biegun’s recent visit to South Korea, and the US understands our position,” a South Korean diplomat said.

A substantial portion of the discussion between Moon and Xi on Monday ― which lasted for two hours and 15 minutes, including the summit and a work luncheon ― was devoted to Korean Peninsula affairs. “The recent circumstances, including the suspension of dialogue between North Korea and the US and the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, are not beneficial for North Korea, not to mention South Korea or China,” Moon said, while asking China to take action to ensure that North Korea doesn’t walk away from the negotiations.

Blue House Spokesperson Ko Min-jung quoted Xi as saying that “Our two countries have had more in common in our positions on Korean Peninsula affairs since President Moon took office.” That was echoed by a report in China’s state-run Xinhua News, which quoted Xi as saying that “China and South Korea’s positions and interests in relation to Korean Peninsula issues coincide.”

China is only country with practical influence over N. Korea

The reason that Moon emphasized China’s role during this summit is that, practically speaking, China is the only country that can serve as a meaningful mediator in today’s challenging situation. During an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), North Korean officials discussed expanding their “self-defense capabilities,” and the North is planning to announce a new strategic line in an upcoming plenary session of the WPK Central Committee. The US is urging the North to return to the negotiating table while also warning that it’s “ready for everything,” including the military option. Biegun was unable to arrange a meeting with the North Koreans during his recent visit to South Korea, and inter-Korean communication has been cut off.

“Since there hasn’t been a breakthrough in North Korea-US dialogue or inter-Korean dialogue, China will have to play a central role in preventing the situation from deteriorating through North Korea calling off the denuclearization talks or launching an ICBM,” said Cho Sung-ryul, a consultant research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy.

While China has managed to accrue more influence over North Korea, it remains to be seen whether it will be able to effectively mediate with Pyongyang and prevent it from launching an ICBM, which the US considers a “red line.”

After submitting its draft resolution to the Security Council, China seems to be reaching out to North Korea behind the scenes in an attempt at persuasion, based on the new approach of resolving the sanctions issue.

“China seems to have concluded that the key issues on the Korean Peninsula are not amenable to resolution without moving the needle on sanctions,” Lee said.

Breakdown in N. Korea-US negotiations counter to China’s strategic interests

China is at once attempting to keep the situation under control, based on its belief that a breakdown of North Korea-US negotiations would work against its strategic interests, while also attempting to expand its sway over the Korean Peninsula.

“China is focused on situation management out of concern that a rupture in North Korea-US dialogue would cause the two sides to revert to the kind of extreme confrontation seen in 2017, which would cement a neo-Cold War alignment and lead to an American military buildup in China’s backyard,” said Yang Gap-yong, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies.

With the US failing to have much of an impact in its denuclearization talks with North Korea, it would appear that Xi wanted to display China’s central position and influence in his discussion of Korean Peninsula issues during back-to-back meetings with Moon and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Beijing on Dec. 23.

By Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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